News
"Bayes Rules" Article in The Economist
Bayesian
techniques
may help to explain how the mind works. Click here for the full article.
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Events & Papers
Martin
Neil presented "Using Risk Maps to Visually Model &
Communicate Risk" at the Institute of Risk Management Forum. Download here.
Martin Neil
presented "An Introduction to Bayesian Networks" to DSTL (a branch of
the UK Ministry of Defence) Network Skills Group.
Download here.
Norman Fenton presented "Improved Software Defect Prediction" at the
British Computer Society, Software Process Improvement Network. Download here.
Martin Neil will
present "Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks",
The First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and
Security (AReS), Vienna University of Technology, April 20 - 22 2006.
This work is an output of a collaborative project, eXdecide, between Agena and Queen Mary, University of London. Download here.
Martin
Neil invited to present at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop
"Workshop on Computational Models of Risks to Infrastructure",
Primosten, Croatia, May 9 -13, 2006.
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Free Download
You can download a free evaluation of
AgenaRisk
4.0,
which contains the complete functionality, here.
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Welcome
Welcome
to the first edition of the Agena newsletter. We hope you find it
informative and useful. We welcome any feedback; contact us at newsletter@agena.co.uk.
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Visualising Your Risks
by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
Have
you ever had to do a project risk assessment and not known where to
start? Have you ever looked at a long list of risks and wondered how
you could make more sense of it? You probably won't have been helped by
the literature on risk assessment. In the first of a series of articles
we show you how to visualise your risks by turning them into what is
technically known as a causal model, Bayesian network or
‘risk map’. It’s best to think of risk
assessment as telling a story. And it’s a story that will
help you understand what your risks really are.
Click here
for the full paper.
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Product News
AgenaRisk
Version 4.0 Released on 17th March 2006
Agena
has been designing and applying Bayesian Network and Simulation
solutions for the last four years. In that time we have helped field a
wide variety of applications to solve decision-support, simulation and
risk analysis problems for high-profile clients.
AgenaRisk
4.0 supports exact and approximate inference in hybrid and dynamic
networks using dynamic discretization as an alternative to Monte-Carlo
simulation.
Up
until now AgenaRisk has only been available to a select number of
clients in the defence, telecommunications and safety critical sectors.
But it is now available, along with a large number of tutorials and
example models, as an off-the-shelf software package. For more details
visit www.AgenaRisk.com.
An
overview presentation of AgenaRisk is available here.
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Customer Showcase
Integrity
Management Decision-Support using Bayesian Networks
ERA
Technology has just completed an intensive program of work for the Abu
Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company Ltd (ADGAS). One aspect of this work was
providing ADGAS with a decision-support tool to help prioritise vessel
inspection regimes.
Click here
to read the full showcase.
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Technology Showcase
Information
Fusion using Bayesian Networks
Information fusion involves
combining elements of classification, filtering, measures of
effectiveness and temporal dynamics into one model. This can look
daunting but is actually fairly straightforward to model in AgenaRisk.
Click here to read the full showcase.
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