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Optimal infrastructure replacement strategies in the energy industry

Problem

• The infrastructure assets (like gas pipes, oil platforms and vessels) of major energy companies are expected to last for many decades
• Repairing and replacing such assets is a continually ongoing process
• Since such assets must inevitably be repaired and replaced in an incremental manner, a massive challenge for the companies is to determine an optimal replacement strategy
• Specifically, the challenge is to determine, at any given time, which components should be replaced first
• Two of Agena's clients faced this challenge: one in the gas sector was looking for an optimal strategy of pipe replacement, the other in the oil and gas sector was looking for an optimal strategy for vessel repair and modernisation
• In the case of the gas company there was a special concern about the effects of data quality on failure rates. Sampling uncovered the fact that some materials were wrongly classified. The risk of failure needed to be reassessed to take into account this reduction in data quality

Solution

• In the case of the vessel update problem a risk map was developed in AgenaRisk to provide predictions of most likely critical failures based on a range of objective indicators and expert judgement
• For the pipeline problem AgenaRisk was used to encapsulate existing material failure prediction models and known failure rates
• The generated models were then enhanced using sampled material misclassification statistics to compute "true" failure rates
• AgenaRisk predicted failure more accurately

Benefits

• AgenaRisk enhances the accuracy of the materials replacement planning process
• AgenaRisk is used to satisfy regulators that best practice has been applied and that data quality risks have been accounted for

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